Group G — Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand

Belgium were ranked number one in the world for three consecutive years. That golden generation — Hazard, De Bruyne, Lukaku, Courtois — accumulated over a decade of near-misses at major tournaments without winning anything. Now the clock is running out. The 2026 World Cup may be the last stand for several of Belgium’s icons, and Group G gives them a draw they should handle. Egypt bring Mohamed Salah and continental pedigree. Iran are one of Asia’s most consistent qualifiers. New Zealand round out the pool as Oceania’s sole representative. On paper, Belgium coast through. In practice, aging squads under pressure have a habit of stumbling against opponents they are expected to dismiss.

Belgium — Last Dance for the Golden Generation

Third place at Russia 2018. Quarter-final exit at Qatar 2022 after a dismal group stage where Belgium scored just one goal. The trajectory is unmistakable — Belgium’s golden generation has been declining in real time, and the 2026 World Cup represents the final opportunity for De Bruyne, Lukaku and Courtois to deliver the trophy their collective talent arguably deserved.

The squad will look different from 2022. Eden Hazard retired. Vincent Kompany moved into coaching. The next generation includes promising players from Ligue 1, the Bundesliga and the Premier League, but none carry the game-changing ability of De Bruyne at his peak. Belgium’s tactical system has shifted toward a more pragmatic 3-4-2-1 that relies on wing-back width and De Bruyne’s creative genius — but what happens when De Bruyne has an off day or picks up a knock? The depth behind him is competent, not exceptional, and that vulnerability matters in a 39-day tournament where fatigue and injury accumulate rapidly through the knockout rounds.

Belgium’s record in group stages, however, is excellent. They have advanced from their group in every World Cup since 2014, and their qualifying campaigns through UEFA consistently produce top-two finishes in competitive pools. The machine works at the group level even when it falters later. For the 2026 group stage specifically, the draw has been kind — none of Egypt, Iran or New Zealand have the squad depth to push Belgium to the wire across three matches.

Decimal odds on Belgium to win Group G sit around 1.55, implying roughly 65%. I think that is fair. Belgium’s squad quality remains a clear tier above the other three teams, and their European qualifying campaign — while not flawless — produced enough results to justify favouritism. The to-qualify price at 1.10 is essentially a certainty in the market’s eyes. Group G is not the place where Belgium’s campaign will end. The knockout rounds are where the pressure truly arrives.

For bettors, Belgium’s group matches offer limited value in outright markets but genuine opportunity in player props. Lukaku’s anytime goalscorer odds across three group fixtures will be attractive if the market prices him below his expected goal output based on Belgium’s chance creation rate. De Bruyne’s assists market is similarly interesting — he remains among the world’s elite playmakers, and in a group where Belgium should dominate possession, his output should reflect that control.

Egypt — Salah and the Weight of African Hopes

Mohamed Salah at a World Cup is appointment viewing for bettors. His 2018 campaign was disrupted by a shoulder injury sustained in the Champions League final just weeks before the tournament, and Egypt lost all three group matches. Now, at 34, Salah arrives in North America fully fit, leading a squad that has matured significantly through two Africa Cup of Nations finals in three tournaments. Egypt’s AFCON record — runners-up in 2021, semi-finalists in 2023 — demonstrates a team capable of knockout-stage performances against Africa’s best.

The challenge for Egypt is translating African form to the World Cup stage. The tactical approach — organised defence, controlled midfield, counter-attacks funnelled through Salah’s channel — works beautifully against AFCON opponents but faces a sterner test against Belgium’s pressing structure and Iran’s compact defensive system. Egypt need a minimum of four points from the Iran and New Zealand matches to realistically qualify, and that requires winning both or winning one and drawing the other plus taking a point off Belgium.

To-qualify odds for Egypt around 2.50 imply roughly 40%. I would price them at about 45%, making the current line slight value. Egypt are the strongest second-place candidate in this group, and Salah’s individual brilliance provides a margin of error that purely tactical assessments understate. The match to watch is Egypt versus Iran — the fixture that will likely determine which of the two finishes second. Egypt’s attacking quality should give them the edge in a match where both sides will approach cautiously, and the over 0.5 Egypt goals line in that fixture is one of the more confident propositions across the entire group stage.

Iran — Asia’s Stubborn Qualifier

Iran have qualified for three consecutive World Cups and six overall. Their record at the tournament is built on defensive solidity and the ability to absorb pressure against superior opposition — a draw with Portugal in 2018, a narrow loss to Spain, competitive performances against England and the USA in 2022. Iran do not beat favourites, but they make every match uncomfortable enough to derail opponents’ goal-difference calculations and upset group-stage accumulators.

The squad’s reliance on domestic-league players from the Persian Gulf Pro League limits their ceiling at World Cup level. The gap between Iranian club football and European top-flight standards is real, and it manifests in transition moments where the speed of thought and execution required at the highest level exceeds what the squad can consistently deliver. Against Belgium, Iran’s strategy will be damage limitation — sit deep, stay compact, hope for a set-piece opportunity. Against Egypt and New Zealand, they need to find an attacking gear that has been elusive in previous World Cup campaigns. Iran’s goalscoring record at recent World Cups tells the story: two goals in three matches at 2022, two goals in three matches at 2018. Breaking that pattern against an Egypt defence that conceded just three goals in their AFCON qualifying group is a tall order.

To-qualify odds around 4.50 for Iran correctly price a team whose ceiling is third place. Their best result is likely a draw against New Zealand or Egypt, producing two or three points and an early exit. I see no value in backing Iran to qualify, but the draw in Iran versus New Zealand — priced around 3.00 — is an interesting individual-match angle for bettors who recognise that two defensively-minded lower-ranked teams often produce stalemates when neither can afford to lose.

New Zealand — Oceania’s Lone Representative

New Zealand’s World Cup history is remarkable for one specific reason: they are the only team to go through the 2010 tournament unbeaten, drawing all three group matches against Slovakia, Italy and Paraguay. That feat — while ultimately insufficient for qualification — revealed a squad punching dramatically above its weight through organisation, discipline and the kind of collective will that smaller football nations develop as survival instinct.

The 2026 squad faces a different challenge. The expanded 48-team format gives Oceania a guaranteed spot, removing the inter-confederation playoff that was previously New Zealand’s only pathway. That is positive for preparation — the squad can focus entirely on World Cup readiness rather than navigating a tense one-off qualifier. But the group draw offers no comfort. Belgium, Egypt and Iran are all capable of beating New Zealand by multiple goals, and the All Whites’ most realistic target is a single point from a draw against Iran. The squad relies heavily on players from the A-League, MLS and lower English divisions — functional professionals who compete hard but lack the pace, technical ceiling and decision-making speed of opponents trained in Europe’s top leagues.

Betting on New Zealand at the 2026 World Cup is a novelty proposition. Their to-qualify odds around 12.00 reflect a sub-10% probability that the group’s composition makes difficult to argue against. The sharpest angle is both teams to score in New Zealand’s matches at boosted prices — the All Whites have enough quality to find the net at least once in most fixtures, and even heavy defeats often include a consolation goal that pays off the BTTS market.

Group G Schedule

Matchday 2 is the pivot again — Egypt versus Iran on June 20 is the group’s most consequential fixture outside of Belgium’s matches. The outcome of that encounter will almost certainly determine the second qualifying spot. Belgium close against Egypt on the final day, and if both teams have already qualified, expect rotation and a lower-intensity contest that the over/under market should price accordingly.

Group G Odds and Who Qualifies

Belgium first with seven to nine points, Egypt second with four to six, Iran third with one to three, New Zealand fourth. My top pick: Egypt to qualify at 2.50 — Salah’s presence, two AFCON final appearances and the favourable matchup profile against Iran and New Zealand make Egypt the strongest second-place candidate by a comfortable margin. The implied 40% understates what I believe is closer to a 45% true probability. As a secondary angle, under 2.5 goals in Egypt versus Iran suits both teams’ tactical profiles and the stakes of the match. Avoid New Zealand at any qualification price — the broader group analysis confirms Oceania’s representative faces the steepest odds of any team in the tournament outside of the other debutants.