Two Giants Gone — Germany and the Netherlands Fall on Penalties

Round of 32 · 29–30 June 2026 · Four ties settled · Germany and the Netherlands eliminated on penalties · Canada’s Round of 16 opponent confirmed

The Round of 32 did what the old 32-team format rarely allowed: it took two of the tournament’s heavyweights out early and on the cruellest margin. Germany, four-time champions, are gone — beaten by Paraguay on penalties after a 1-1 draw. The Netherlands are gone too, out to a Morocco side that has now knocked over a European power in front of a Monterrey crowd. Brazil survived a Japan scare, Norway rode a late Erling Haaland winner, and by the time the dust settled the top of the outright board had a new, clearer favourite. For a Canadian audience there is one line that matters above the rest: the co-hosts now know who they face on 4 July.

An editorial illustration of dejected German and Dutch players leaving the pitch as Paraguay and Morocco celebrate
Germany and the Netherlands both exited the Round of 32 on penalties — two of the biggest shocks of the knockout stage so far.
Paraguay knocked out Germany 4-3 on penalties (1-1 after extra time) and Morocco eliminated the Netherlands 3-2 on penalties (1-1). Brazil beat Japan 2-1 and Norway beat Côte d’Ivoire 2-1. Advancing: Brazil, Paraguay, Morocco, Norway. Canada’s Round of 16 tie is now confirmed against Morocco on 4 July in Houston.

The four ties, settled

Match (Round of 32) Result Venue
Germany vs Paraguay 1-1 — Paraguay win 4-3 on penalties Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
Netherlands vs Morocco 1-1 — Morocco win 3-2 on penalties Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Brazil vs Japan 2-1 NRG Stadium, Houston
Côte d’Ivoire vs Norway 1-2 AT&T Stadium, Arlington

Two further Round of 32 ties from 30 June — France vs Sweden at MetLife and Mexico vs Ecuador at Estadio Azteca — had not yet returned confirmed final scores to authoritative sources when this recap was compiled. We are treating them as fixtures rather than results and will recap them once the scorelines are confirmed, rather than guess.

Germany out — Paraguay hold their nerve

The result that reshaped the bracket. Germany led through Kai Havertz in the 52nd minute, but Paraguay drew level late in the first half through Julio Enciso and dragged the four-time champions all the way to a shootout. There, Paraguay were the calmer side: goalkeeper Gill made two saves and José Canale buried the decisive kick to win it 4-3. It is one of the biggest Round of 32 upsets of this expanded tournament — a giant among the very first teams eliminated.

Why it matters for the board: Germany came into the knockouts priced around 19.0 (18/1) on the outright market. Their elimination took them off the champion board entirely, and the ripple firmed the sides above them — most notably France.

The Netherlands out — Morocco strike again

Monterrey delivered the night’s second shock. Cody Gakpo put the Netherlands ahead in the 72nd minute, but Ismaël Diop equalised in the 91st to force extra time, and Morocco held their composure in the shootout. Yassine Bounou saved Crysencio Summerville’s penalty and Ismaël Saïbari converted the decider for a 3-2 win. Morocco’s reward is the tie that lands squarely on Canadian radar — a Round of 16 date with the co-hosts in Houston.

Morocco’s surge
A 3-2 shootout win over a champion-calibre Dutch side has slashed Morocco’s outright price from roughly 46.0 (45/1) to about 20.0 (18/1). They now carry genuine dark-horse status into the Round of 16.
The Dutch exit
The Netherlands topped Group F with seven points but conceded across the run, and a thin midfield without Xavi Simons and Jurriën Timber finally told. They drift off the outright board.

Brazil survive — Martinelli settles it in stoppage time

Brazil were made to work by a Japan side that had beaten them in a friendly eight months earlier. Sano put Japan ahead in the 29th minute before Casemiro levelled in the 56th, and it took a Gabriel Martinelli strike in the sixth minute of stoppage time (90+6′) to win it 2-1 and send Brazil into the Round of 16 — where Norway await.

Haaland does it again — Norway edge Côte d’Ivoire

Antonio Nusa opened the scoring for Norway in the 39th minute, Amad Diallo hauled Côte d’Ivoire level in the 74th, and then the man of the tournament so far settled it: Erling Haaland, 86th minute, his fifth goal of the World Cup, for a 2-1 win. Norway march on to a Round of 16 meeting with Brazil, and Haaland sits one behind Lionel Messi (6) in the Golden Boot race.

The Round of 16 pairings taking shape

The two ties confirmed by these results are the ones a Canadian bettor will be circling all week.

Date (ET) Round of 16 tie Venue
Sat 4 Jul Canada vs Morocco NRG Stadium, Houston
Sun 5 Jul Brazil vs Norway MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford

The remaining Round of 16 slots feed from the ties still to be played between 30 June and 3 July. Our full look at the developing bracket is in the Round of 16 preview.

Outright winner odds — France stands alone

With Germany and the Netherlands off the board, the market tightened around a new clear favourite. Numbers below are decimal, sourced from FanDuel via Fox Sports and dated 30 June 2026; treat them as a range, not a fixed price.

Selection Odds (decimal) Note
France 3.50 Firmed to sole clear favourite after Germany’s exit
Argentina 5.00 Clear second
Spain 7.50 Plays Austria 2 July
England 8.00 Plays DR Congo 1 July
Brazil 10.50 Through to face Norway
Portugal 15.00 Plays Croatia 2 July
Morocco 20.00 Sharp mover — Canada’s R16 opponent
Norway 41.00 Haaland’s side, meets Brazil
Canada 126.00 Co-hosts, into the Round of 16
Example: France shortened from roughly 4.50 to 3.50 across the 24 hours around these results. A C$25 outright on France at 3.50 returns C$87.50 (C$62.50 profit). Morocco, into a tie with Canada, sit around 20.00 — a C$10 ticket would return C$200. Lines stamped 30 June 2026 — confirm the live price at your Canadian-licensed sportsbook before staking.
The outright board carries a 30 June 2026 timestamp and predates the two pending 30 June ties (France–Sweden, Mexico–Ecuador). Those results will move the market again. All prices here are decimal, in CAD; verify at your Canadian-licensed sportsbook (Ontario via AGCO / iGaming Ontario; BCLC PlayNow in BC; Loto-Québec in Québec; ALC in the Atlantic) before placing.

The Canadian read

  • The opponent is known. Canada face Morocco in Houston on 4 July — a knockout-tested side fresh off eliminating the Netherlands. It is a hard draw, but not the champion-level test the other side of the bracket carries.
  • The bracket lost two big names. With Germany and the Netherlands out, the quadrant math around Canada looks different than it did a week ago. The path is treacherous, but the ceiling is real.
  • Golden Boot stays a two-horse race. Messi (6) leads Haaland (5) after the Norwegian’s latest late winner; both are alive deep into the knockouts.
Who got knocked out in the Round of 32 on 29 June 2026?
Germany were eliminated by Paraguay 4-3 on penalties (1-1 after extra time), and the Netherlands were eliminated by Morocco 3-2 on penalties (also 1-1). Both former powers went out at the first knockout hurdle.
What was the score in Brazil vs Japan?
Brazil won 2-1. Sano scored for Japan (29′), Casemiro equalised (56′) and Gabriel Martinelli won it in stoppage time (90+6′).
Who does Canada play in the Round of 16?
Canada face Morocco on Saturday 4 July 2026 at NRG Stadium in Houston, with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET. Coverage is on TSN, CBC and CTV.
Who is the World Cup favourite now?
France, at around 3.50 decimal on the FanDuel via Fox Sports board dated 30 June 2026, firmed to the clear outright favourite after Germany’s exit. Argentina are next at about 5.00.
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