The Quarter-final Bracket Comes Into View — Morocco-France Confirmed, Norway-England Set

Quarter-finals 9–11 July 2026 · Four ties · Foxborough, Inglewood, Miami Gardens, Kansas City · Winner takes on the semi-finals · Outright board reshuffled after the R16 upsets

Half the quarter-final bracket is already known. Morocco and France meet in QF1 on Thursday 9 July at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough — a rematch of narratives from Qatar 2022, and Morocco’s second consecutive World Cup semi-final push. Norway and England — the two Sunday upset winners — meet in QF3 on Saturday 11 July at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. The remaining two ties depend on the four Round of 16 matches still to play (Portugal-Spain and USA-Belgium today, Argentina-Egypt and Switzerland-Colombia tomorrow), but the shape is clear enough to see. France (2.70) are the clear outright favourite. Norway (17.00) have moved from lottery ticket to genuine contender. Brazil are gone. Mexico are gone. Twelve teams remain.

The four quarter-finals — mapped

Sources: FIFA, ESPN, CBS Sports, Al Jazeera, Wikipedia — cross-verified as of 6 July 2026 ET.

QF1 — Morocco vs France, Thursday in Foxborough

France and Morocco meet in the quarter-final on Thursday at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. France (2.70) are still the market’s champion. Morocco (31.00) arrive as the tournament’s dark-horse survivor of the round — R32 conquerors of the Netherlands on penalties and R16 winners over co-hosts Canada. The venue is open-air in southern New England; kickoff time is provisionally around 4:00 PM ET on 9 July.

QF3 — Norway vs England, Saturday in Miami Gardens

The tournament’s other confirmed quarter-final is the Sunday upsets meeting each other. Norway beat Brazil 2-1 on 5 July (Haaland 79′ and 90′); England beat Mexico 3-2 (Bellingham 36′ and 38′, Kane pen 60′). Both are shortened outrights: Norway to 17.00 (from a longer pre-round price), England to 6.00. The Golden Boot subplot is heavy — Haaland (7 goals) and Kane (6) both in the tie, and the three-way tie at the top of the board (Haaland level with Mbappé and Messi on 7) still on the line.

"This is probably one of the biggest England wins in a while, probably the biggest one I can remember as a fan or player. The best night of my England career." — Jude Bellingham (England), ESPN, 5 July 2026

QF3 sits at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens — the same venue where Brazil went out. The stadium is open air with a canopy; the July climate is hot and humid, with an afternoon storm chance. Player-welfare protocols may factor.

QF2 — decided by tonight’s Portugal-Spain and USA-Belgium

The QF2 fixture at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood on Friday 10 July is the winner of Portugal-Spain vs the winner of USA-Belgium. On paper, the most likely outcome is Spain vs the USA — Spain shortest on Monday’s card at 1.87 in Dallas, USA at 2.65 in Seattle. On paper the tie no one expected but the odds do not rule out is Portugal vs Belgium, and Portugal’s route to a semi through Belgium would be shorter than through Spain by a wide margin. SoFi is an indoor venue with a translucent roof; conditions climate-controlled.

QF4 — decided by tomorrow’s Argentina-Egypt and Switzerland-Colombia

QF4 sits at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Saturday 11 July, feeding from the last two R16 ties. Argentina (1.36 against Egypt) are heavy favourites to be in that quarter-final; Switzerland-Colombia in Vancouver is billed as the tightest R16 tie of the round, with the market narrowly favouring Colombia (2.25) over Switzerland (3.50) on FanDuel. Arrowhead is open air; Kansas City in early July can push into the mid-30°C range, with storm risk in the afternoon window.

Outright winner odds — the state of the market

France remain the clear favourite. Argentina, England and Spain sit in the second tier. Norway, Portugal and Colombia are the dark-horse trio. Numbers below are decimal, sourced from FanDuel via FOX Sports futures summaries, as of 6 July 2026 03:15 ET. Aggregator multi-book decimals were not fetchable; treat these as single-book indicative prices.

Golden Boot — quarter-final chase

Kylian Mbappé (France, 7 goals) is 2.00. Lionel Messi (Argentina, 7) is 2.65. Erling Haaland (Norway, 7) is 8.00. Harry Kane (England, 6) is 11.00. All four are still playing. All four have matches this week or next. Assist and minutes tiebreakers apply if the leaderboard ends level; Norway carry Haaland toward a maximum three more matches, France carry Mbappé toward the same, and Argentina and England the same on their side. Mbappé’s price reflects France’s shorter route through the top half of the draw.

The Canadian read

• Canada are out but the bracket still tells a story. Morocco — the side that eliminated Canada — is now in QF1 against France. A Morocco run would justify, retrospectively, that the R16 loss was to a genuinely elite tournament team. A France win in QF1 sets up a possible semi against the QF2 winner — Spain, the USA or one of the two shocks.
• Two consecutive Canadian-soil quarter-finals in this bracket? Not this time. The QFs are all in US venues. Vancouver’s BC Place hosts its final tournament match on 7 July (Switzerland vs Colombia); Toronto’s BMO Field’s last match was 2 July (Portugal-Croatia). Canadian coverage now is entirely on TSN, CBC, CTV and Sportsnet from US venues.
• Outright value. France at 2.70 is a fair, not generous, favourite price. The three most interesting outright plays for a Canadian-licensed sportsbook cash-out mindset are Portugal (15.00) if they beat Spain today, Norway (17.00) if you back Haaland’s momentum, and Colombia (26.00) if you fancy Switzerland to be the round’s next casualty.

Related reading on MatchPoint 26

• Yesterday’s R16 results at world-cup-results-5-july-2026.
• Today’s Portugal-Spain and USA-Belgium picks at world-cup-daily-picks-6-july-2026.
• Argentina vs Egypt at world-cup-match-preview-argentina-egypt.
• What Brazil’s exit means at world-cup-brazil-eliminated-what-next.
• Outright winner analysis — /articles/world-cup-winner-odds-analysis/.
• Predictions hub — /world-cup-predictions/.