Haaland Ends Brazil’s Tournament, Bellingham Ends Mexico’s — QF3 Is Set
Round of 16 · 5 July 2026 · Norway 2-1 Brazil, England 3-2 Mexico · Brazil out, Norway reach a first-ever quarter-final · QF3 confirmed: Norway vs England, 11 July, Miami Gardens
The knockout stage delivered its two biggest upsets of the tournament on the same afternoon. Erling Haaland scored twice in the final eleven minutes to knock five-time champions Brazil out at the Round of 16, sending Norway to a first-ever World Cup quarter-final. Then, at the Azteca in Mexico City, Jude Bellingham struck twice in ninety seconds and Harry Kane converted a penalty to beat co-hosts Mexico 3-2 — Mexico’s first-ever home defeat at a men’s World Cup. By full time, the quarter-final on 11 July in Miami Gardens had a fixture: Norway vs England.

The two ties, settled
| Match (Round of 16) | Score | Key moments | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil vs Norway | 1-2 | Bruno Guimarães (BRA) penalty saved by Nyland 13′; Haaland 79′ (header, assist Schjelderup); Haaland 90′; Neymar 90′ (pen, consolation) | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL |
| Mexico vs England | 2-3 | Bellingham 36′, 38′; Quiñones (MEX) 42′; Quansah (ENG) red 54′ (VAR, studs-up); Kane 60′ (pen); Jiménez (MEX) 69′ (pen) | Estadio Azteca, Mexico City |
Sources: ESPN, CBS Sports, Al Jazeera, NBC Sports, England Football, FIFA — cross-verified as of 6 July 2026 ET.
Norway 2-1 Brazil — the day the giant fell
Brazil had won the group. Brazil had beaten Japan in the Round of 32. Brazil arrived in Miami with the second-shortest outright price on the pre-round board and the tournament’s marquee attacking name on the team sheet. None of it mattered after the 79th minute. Erling Haaland — quiet for the first hour and a half, marked by a Brazilian back line that had conceded only twice in five matches — rose in the box to head in a Sondre Schjelderup delivery. Eleven minutes later, he did it again in open play. Neymar’s stoppage-time penalty was a consolation for a Brazil team that never looked comfortable and whose ninety minutes ended with Ancelotti walking off the pitch already talking about a "new cycle".
The single most punishing statistic: Bruno Guimarães missed a 13th-minute penalty, saved by Norway keeper Ørjan Nyland. From there, Brazil failed to convert a single one of their attacks into a goal from open play. It is Brazil’s earliest World Cup exit since 1990.
"This is just an insane day. It’s one of the most insane days in Norwegian history." — Erling Haaland (Norway), The National, 6 July 2026
England 3-2 Mexico — 90 seconds, one red card, one hostile Azteca
The Azteca has hosted eleven previous men’s World Cup matches involving Mexico. Mexico had not lost any of them. That record ended in the 38th minute, roughly ninety seconds after Jude Bellingham scored his first goal of the night. Bellingham struck twice in that window (36′ and 38′), Kane added a 60th-minute penalty, and England held the lead down to ten men after Jarell Quansah’s studs-up challenge on Julián Gallardo was upgraded to red by VAR in the 54th minute. Mexico pulled two back — Quiñones on 42′, Jiménez from the spot on 69′ — but England defended the last twenty-five minutes with a discipline that turned the Azteca crowd from roar to silence.
Bellingham’s own verbatim reaction after the match:
"This is probably one of the biggest England wins in a while, probably the biggest one I can remember as a fan or player. The best night of my England career." — Jude Bellingham (England), ESPN, 5 July 2026
Quarter-final 3 is set — Norway vs England, 11 July, Miami Gardens
The 5 July winners meet each other at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Saturday 11 July. Norway carry Haaland, on 7 tournament goals after his brace, into a fixture against England’s Bellingham (2 goals) and Kane (6 goals, second on the Golden Boot board). It is the tournament’s other Golden Boot subplot.
| QF | Fixture | Date | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| QF3 | Norway vs England | Sat 11 Jul | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL |
The full quarter-final bracket is being finalised across today and tomorrow — Portugal-Spain and USA-Belgium tonight, Argentina-Egypt and Switzerland-Colombia on Tuesday.
Outright winner odds — reshaped by the day
Brazil, previously a top-of-board contender, was removed from the winner market after elimination. Norway shortened sharply. England shortened too. France remain the clear favourite. All numbers below are decimal, sourced from FanDuel via FOX Sports futures, as of 6 July 2026 03:15 ET.
| Selection | Odds (decimal) | Movement |
|---|---|---|
| France | 2.70 | Clear favourite (through to QF1, 9 Jul) |
| Argentina | 5.40 | — (play Egypt tomorrow) |
| England | 6.00 | Shortened after beating Mexico |
| Spain | 6.50 | — (play Portugal today) |
| Portugal | 15.00 | — (play Spain today) |
| Norway | 17.00 | Shortened sharply on the upset |
| Colombia | 26.00 | — |
| Morocco | 31.00 | Through to QF1 (9 Jul) |
| USA | 31.00 | — (play Belgium today) |
| Belgium | 56.00 | — (play USA today) |
| Switzerland | 76.00 | — |
| Egypt | 251.00 | Longest live price on the board |
Golden Boot — now a three-way tie on 7
Haaland’s brace lifted him to 7 tournament goals — level with Kylian Mbappé (France) and Lionel Messi (Argentina) at the top of the Golden Boot board. Mbappé remains the shortest-priced at 2.00 decimal, with Messi at 2.65 and Haaland cut to 8.00. Harry Kane, on 6 after his penalty, sits fourth at 11.00 (FanDuel via FOX Sports, 5 July 2026 ET).
The Canadian read
- Neymar signals the end. After the match, ESPN reported that Neymar suggested his Brazil career is over. Ancelotti — whose first World Cup as Brazil head coach ended in the R16 — confirmed he will stay on and called the midfield a “big problem”, framing the loss as the start of a “new cycle”.
- The winner market has a clear leader. France (2.70) is now the only single-digit outright on the board with a QF already booked. Argentina, England and Spain sit in the 5.40-6.50 band and all play knockout matches inside the next 48 hours.
- Golden Boot subplot. Haaland, Mbappé and Messi are level on 7. Mbappé still has the shortest route in market terms (France in QF1, then a semi and final); Haaland has the longest but the momentum. Canada’s Jonathan David is out of the race after the R16 exit to Morocco.
Related reading on MatchPoint 26
- Today’s picks for Portugal-Spain and USA-Belgium at world-cup-daily-picks-6-july-2026.
- The Argentina-Egypt Round of 16 preview at world-cup-match-preview-argentina-egypt.
- The full Quarter-final map at world-cup-quarter-final-preview.
- What Brazil’s elimination means at world-cup-brazil-eliminated-what-next.
- Outright winner analysis —
/articles/world-cup-winner-odds-analysis/.